Finance

I founded InterMarket Forecasting, Inc. (IFI) in 2000 and since then have been its president and chief market strategist. IFI is an investment research, forecasting and consulting firm that quantifies market-price indicators to guide the tactical asset allocation decisions of pension funds, banks, independent investment managers, mutual funds and hedge funds. IFI’s unique methods and propriety models help decode the forecasts embedded in forward-looking market prices, interpreted with models grounded in Saysian economics (Jean-Baptiste Say). In contrast, most rivals use backward-looking, revisable government accounting data interpreted with models drawn from Keynesian economics (John Maynard Keynes).  In addition to authoring weekly proprietary reports for clients, I contribute to IFI’s public blog, The Capitalist Standard (TCS).

Whereas Saysian economics holds that capitalism is efficient, productive, stable, and durable unless harmed by public policies, Keynesian economics views capitalism as casino-like, prone to crises of “over-production,” and sustainable only by extensive government intervention. Forecasting and investment advice are likely to be superior when markets are understood to be stable and efficient, albeit periodically damaged by punitive and volatile public policies, instead of markets being dismissed as irrational or fickle and public officials deified as astute, omnipotent, and prescient.

IFI has a long, successful track record of contrarian yet reliable forecasting of public policy, the business cycle, and the performance of investable assets including stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. IFI specializes in the causes and effects of central bank policy and the term structure of interest rates (yield curve); it is the only firm to have rightly forecasted all three recessions since 2000 (2000-01, 2007-09, 2020), each roughly one year in advance, without falsely signaling recessions that did not occur. IFI is also the only forecasting firm globally that publishes its complete, unabridged track record every year.